Portfolio Pulse
This week, the Global Tech 15 declined –3.94%, compared with the S&P 500’s –1.92%.
The Nasdaq Composite endured its most volatile stretch in weeks, swinging nearly 2% in multiple sessions as markets rotated sharply between “risk-off” and “risk-on” positioning.
Tech remained the focal point, first leading the sell-off, then driving Friday’s recovery.
Inside the portfolio
Semiconductors:
Nvidia and AMD stayed under pressure heading into earnings, reflecting broader worries about AI capex sustainability and short-term positioning rather than anything structural.
Mega-cap platforms:
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet stabilised late in the week as investors returned to balance-sheet strength and recurring revenue.
Infrastructure & compute:
News flow this week continued to reinforce the long-term story: Foxconn’s AI server business growing double-digits, global capex announcements from hyperscalers, and the Czech National Bank becoming the first central bank to hold bitcoin in a test portfolio.
Portfolio volatility remains within expected ranges for a tech-led allocation.
What Moved Markets
Shutdown ends, data doesn’t
The US government shutdown finally ended after 43 days, but key economic data remains delayed or potentially unreleased.
Markets spent the week “flying blind,” trading without jobs reports, CPI updates, or labour market surveys, intensifying volatility in the Nasdaq.
AI recalibration, not reversal
Concerns around elevated valuations re-emerged after the sharp drop in Oracle’s value and weakness across cloud names. At the same time, businesses showed their hand: global AI spending continues to accelerate.
This week alone we saw confirmation of structural momentum:
- Foxconn’s AI server segment surging
- SoftBank doubling down on AI investments
- SoFi rolling out crypto trading and planning its own stablecoin
- Square enabling Bitcoin payments for 4 million merchants
- Institutional demand for digital assets at all-time highs
- Stablecoin regulation progressing in both the US and UK
Despite the noise, capital is still flowing into compute, rails, and digital infrastructure. The tech trade is very much still alive (and thriving).
Rotation behaviour intensifies
Large intraday swings pointed to systematic repositioning, profit-taking, de-risking, and end-of-year portfolio adjustments.
Multiple managers cited the same dynamic: 1–2% daily moves are likely to persist through year-end as investors rebalance around stretched tech leadership valuations.
Forward View
Next week we are watching:
- The return of delayed economic data
- Treasury issuance patterns and liquidity conditions
- Nvidia’s Q4 guidance and the Blackwell demand picture
- AI-capex commentary from suppliers and cloud providers
- Nasdaq leadership behaviour around key moving averages
The structural signals (compute demand, digital-asset adoption, and hyperscaler capex) remain fully intact.
Our focus stays on discipline, not prediction.
Tactical Observations
Volatility across mega-cap tech often reveals pockets of opportunity, especially when the narrative temporarily diverges from fundamentals.
This week, the most notable setups emerged around:
- Forced de-risking during data gaps
- Temporary rotations out of AI infrastructure
- Misalignments between long-term AI capex and short-term sentiment
- Weakness in semiconductors ahead of Nvidia’s results
This has led to the mispricing of value across the tech ecosystem.
Full details, including our follow-up performance notes, live performance charts, private community, is available exclusively to paid subscribers on SavvyTrader.
Until next week,
North Tech Capital
Disclaimer: This memo is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed professional.
