by While the “talking heads” on TV spent late 2024 debating interest rates, the our model was focused on one thing: The Foundry Bottleneck.
On 24th August 2024, we added Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) to our North Tech 15 model portfolio.
On 3rd March 2026, we sold the entire position and alerted subscribers.
The result was a 123% gain in 18 months.
Since launching the North Tech 15, the portfolio has gained 47.62%, nearly doubling the S&P 500.
A triple-digit return on a “mega-cap” stock is rare.
But in the era of Sovereign AI, TSM wasn’t just a stock; it was the gatekeeper of the global compute supply, and still is.
What to look out for in global tech ecosystem
Before making a decision, longer-term context matters.
Many investors treat a 123% gain as a reason to “let it ride” forever, we take a different view.
An aspect of managing a portfolio is to protect the compounding effect.
When a regional conflict threatens to destabilise the global economy, the “tech trade” becomes secondary to the preservation of capital.
This is the kind of high-stakes environment we navigate elsewhere, where we prioritise the safety of the principal (cash) over the hope of a few extra percent.
馃憠 How we protect capital at North Tech Capital
Why this is not risk-free
Moving to 100% cash is a defensive play, but it isn’t without cost.
If a peace deal had been struck on 4th March and the market rallied 1,000 points, we would have been left watching from the sidelines.
However, we have to look at the reality of 2026.
With the “Sovereign AI” era in full swing, tech companies are more dependent than ever on stable energy and shipping routes.
The uncertainty in the Middle East didn’t just threaten oil prices; it threatened the very infrastructure our top 15 stocks rely on.
In our experience, it is better to be a week too early to the exit than a day too late.
The uncomfortable questions
We are often asked why I didn’t just “trim” the position.
My answer is that we value the reset button.
By moving 100% to cash, we are no longer emotionally attached to the 123% gain: we can look at TSM or Nvidia with fresh eyes.
This is an important psychological shift.
If we wouldn’t buy the stock at today’s price with fresh cash, why would we continue to hold it?
Often, the honest answer is that we wouldn’t.
This “Sovereign Shift” in the market means that yesterday’s winners are often tomorrow’s value traps.
How this could play out
For this move to be proven correct in 2026, we need to see a cooling of the “compute craze.”
If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pressure energy prices, the massive power requirements of AI data centres will become a significant headwind for tech margins.
We are watching for a new “floor” in the semiconductor space.
We do not need to catch the absolute bottom to be successful: we are looking for the point where the “Foundry Bottleneck” thesis meets a sensible valuation once again.
Locking in a 123% gain is a milestone, but it is not the destination.
Good investing is a process of constant re-evaluation.
I have protected my families’ capital during a small market slide, and I am now waiting for the next sovereign leader to emerge from the noise.
Author Position: I currently hold 0% in TSM.