NORTH TECH CAPITAL

Research. Discipline. Tech Stocks.

North Tech Capital: 2025 Annual Review

I am publishing this inaugural annual review for one simple reason: accountability.

Good and prudent investing should be judged on outcomes, not intentions. If I expect readers to think carefully about risk, valuation, and long-term positioning, I should apply the same standard to my own work.

This review covers the first full calendar year of our model portfolio, the Global Tech 15, hosted and independently verified on Savvy Trader.

Performance summary

For the calendar year 2025, the Global Tech 15 returned +28.02%, compared with +16.35% for the S&P 500.

Since inception in August 2024, the portfolio has returned +55.78%, versus +30.60% for the S&P 500 over the same period.

The market backdrop

2025 was not a smooth year for investors.

Equities continued to move higher, but beneath the surface, conditions became more complex.

Inflation concerns lingered. Interest-rate expectations shifted multiple times.

And while large-cap technology remained influential, leadership narrowed at points rather than broadening cleanly.

At the same time, capital began to rotate quietly.

Some investors leaned toward durability and balance rather than pure growth. Others reduced exposure where valuations assumed near-perfect outcomes.

It was a year where narratives were plentiful, but judgement mattered more than headlines.

How North Tech Capital approached 2025

Throughout the year, I did not attempt to forecast short-term market moves or trade around noise.

Instead, I focused on three recurring questions:

  1. Is the underlying business improving?
  2. Is the valuation justified by cash flows and durability?
  3. And is capital being allocated in a way that compounds value over time?

That approach meant fewer changes, not more.

It meant holding through periods of discomfort rather than reacting to every data point. And it meant being willing to sit with uncertainty when the alternatives were weaker.

This philosophy shaped the Global Tech 15.

Not every holding outperformed in every quarter, but collectively, the portfolio reflected the kind of selectivity that markets increasingly rewarded in 2025.

What worked, and why

One of the defining features of the year was the continued importance of scale, pricing power, and integration.

Companies that sat at the centre of enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, and data flows continued to benefit from long-term demand rather than cyclical enthusiasm.

Where enthusiasm ran ahead of fundamentals, I remained cautious.

The Global Tech 15 was not constructed to capture every theme. It was designed to compound steadily, with an emphasis on quality over excitement.

That distinction mattered as the year progressed.

What did not go perfectly

It is also important to be clear about what did not work as well.

Not every position moved in a straight line.

Volatility increased in parts of the technology complex, particularly where capital intensity rose faster than near-term returns. In some cases, patience was required.

In others, expectations had to be reset.

I do not believe that a clean year without drawdowns is realistic or desirable, what matters is whether risks are understood and sized appropriately.

2025 reinforced the importance of that discipline.

Lessons from the year

If there is one lesson that stood out, it is that markets are becoming less forgiving.

Valuation mattered more in 2025 than it had in the immediate years following the pandemic. Business quality mattered more than narratives. And the gap between strong and weak companies widened.

This environment favoured selectivity rather than broad exposure. It rewarded patience over constant activity.

Those are conditions in which I am comfortable operating.

Looking ahead to 2026

If 2025 was defined by resilience, 2026 is likely to be defined by differentiation.

Earnings will matter more. Cash flows will matter more. And capital allocation decisions will be judged more harshly.

I do not expect leadership to remain concentrated forever. Nor do I expect every large technology company to perform equally well.

The next phase is likely to require more judgement and fewer assumptions.

I will continue to focus on that transition.

Not by predicting markets, but by helping readers think clearly about where durability lies and where risks may be underappreciated.

Closing thoughts

This annual review is not a victory lap.

It is a snapshot of how a disciplined, long-term approach performed in a demanding but constructive year for markets.

I publish it because transparency builds trust, and because results should always be open to scrutiny.

I appreciate everyone who has read, challenged, and engaged with North Tech Capital over the past year, and look forward to continuing the work in 2026.

Methodology & disclosure: All performance figures reflect a consistent interpretation of published commentary, without leverage, using third-party verified data via Savvy Trader. Commentary reflects opinion and analysis for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is gold quietly replacing mega-cap tech as the market’s safety trade?

Some of you have been asking why gold has been rising in value so sharply recently.

It is a fair question.

Gold is up sharply over the past year, while some of the assets that dominated the last cycle have stalled. Mega-cap tech has slowed. Crypto has struggled to regain momentum. Yet gold keeps pushing higher.

That leaves long-term investors facing a decision. Is this just another burst of enthusiasm, or is something more structural going on?

Before making a decision, longer-term context matters. This is the kind of shift we look at when thinking about where capital may flow next rather than where it has already been.

(You can see how we approach these transitions in our free report on the next phase of technology leadership.)

What has changed beneath the surface

Gold’s strength is not just about fear.

One of the biggest forces behind the move has been central banks. Over the past few years, official buyers have been adding gold at the fastest pace in decades. This is not speculative money. It is reserve management.

Central banks are choosing to hold an asset with no counterparty risk. One that cannot be printed. One that sits outside the financial system.

That tells you something about how policymakers view the next few years.

At the same time, volatility in gold has been lower than many investors expect. Liquidity has improved. And the market has been able to absorb steady buying without sharp pullbacks.

This is not how bubbles usually behave.

Why this looks different from past gold rallies

Previous gold rallies were often driven by short-term crises.

This one feels slower. More deliberate.

Gold is not competing with technology on growth. It is competing on reliability. In a world where valuations are high, debt levels are rising, and geopolitical lines are hardening, gold is being treated less like a trade and more like infrastructure.

That matters when investors are reassessing risk.

Crypto, by contrast, has struggled to deliver the same role. It remains volatile. It remains sentiment-driven. And despite wider adoption, it has not acted as a consistent hedge when conditions shift.

That gap is what many investors are reacting to.

What I’m watching

Gold is not risk-free.

If real interest rates rise sharply, gold can lose its appeal. If central bank buying slows, momentum could fade. And if inflation falls faster than expected, some of the urgency around hard assets may ease.

There is also the risk of crowding. When too many investors arrive late, returns tend to disappoint.

These risks matter. And they are worth acknowledging.

How I’m thinking about the next 12 to 24 months

I do not see gold as a replacement for productive assets like high-quality technology businesses.

But I do see it as a signal.

It suggests that markets are moving from pure growth-seeking to balance-seeking. From excitement to durability. From stories to structure.

That does not mean mega-cap tech stops working. It means selectivity matters more. Valuation matters more. And patience matters more.

If gold remains strong into 2026, it would tell me that investors are still prioritising protection alongside opportunity.

That is a very different backdrop from the last cycle.

Final thought

Gold’s rise is not a call to abandon equities.

It is a reminder that cycles change.

The best portfolios tend to adapt quietly, not dramatically. They recognise when the market’s priorities are shifting and adjust exposure thoughtfully rather than reactively.

That same mindset applies to technology. Leadership rarely stays concentrated forever.

We’ve explored this in more detail in a free research report that looks at seven technology stocks we believe are positioned to perform as the next phase of the cycle takes shape.

If you want to understand how we’re thinking about that transition, you can read the report here.

Is Nvidia quietly tightening its grip on AI in 2026?

Nvidia has done something it rarely does.

It has spent big.

This week, the company agreed to acquire key assets from AI chip startup Groq in a deal valued at around $20 billion. It is Nvidia’s largest transaction on record.

That alone tells us something important.

Before deciding what this means for long-term investors, it’s worth stepping back and looking at the direction of travel. This is exactly the kind of structural shift we try to flag early in our free research on long-term technology winners.

What’s actually happening here?

This is not a conventional takeover.

Nvidia is not buying Groq outright. Instead, it is acquiring its low-latency inference technology and bringing Groq’s senior engineers in-house.

Groq will continue to exist. But the most valuable part of what it built is now sitting inside Nvidia.

That matters because inference, not training, is becoming the bottleneck in AI.

AI inference is the moment when a trained model is actually used to generate an answer, prediction, or decision. It happens far more often than training and is where real-world demand for fast, efficient chips shows up.

Training models is expensive but episodic. Inference runs every time someone asks an AI a question. That is where scale, efficiency, and margins will be decided.

Nvidia knows this.

Why Nvidia is doing this now

For years, Nvidia’s dominance came from training chips.

That phase is maturing.

The next phase is about real-time AI, embedded everywhere. Data centres. Networks. Enterprise systems. Edge devices.

Groq specialised in ultra-low latency inference. That makes Nvidia’s platform broader and stickier.

In simple terms, this is about control.

By owning more of the AI stack, Nvidia makes it harder for customers to mix and match suppliers. Switching costs rise. Competitors struggle to differentiate.

This is not flashy. But it is powerful.

What still works in Nvidia’s favour

Nvidia is not short of money.

It ended October with over $60bn in cash and short-term investments. This deal barely dents that.

More importantly, Nvidia is not chasing unproven revenue. It is reinforcing an existing ecosystem that customers already depend on.

This is what strong incumbents do when they see a threat forming.

They don’t wait.

What worries me

There are real risks.

First, integration risk. Buying assets and talent is not the same as building culture. Nvidia has executed well before, but at this scale mistakes matter.

Second, scrutiny. Deals like this will not go unnoticed by regulators, especially if Nvidia’s market share in AI infrastructure keeps climbing.

Third, expectations. Nvidia’s valuation already assumes years of strong execution. Any slowdown in AI spending, even temporary, could hit sentiment.

These risks are not hypothetical. They are part of owning a dominant stock.

Looking ahead in 2026

For this move to pay off, three things need to hold.

AI workloads must keep shifting toward inference. Nvidia must integrate Groq’s technology smoothly. And customers must keep choosing Nvidia as their default platform.

If those boxes are ticked, this deal will look obvious in hindsight.

If not, it will be remembered as a sign Nvidia was already playing defence.

Either way, it confirms something important.

The AI build-out is moving from hype to infrastructure. And Nvidia is positioning itself at the centre of that shift.

Final view

I still see Nvidia as a core infrastructure business, not a speculative AI play.

That does not mean it is risk-free. It means it should be judged like critical infrastructure, not a momentum trade.

For new capital, selectivity matters more than excitement.

And Nvidia is no longer the only way to express this theme.

Where this leaves investors

The biggest technology winners over the next cycle are unlikely to be the loudest names.

They will be the companies supplying the infrastructure that quietly becomes essential, long before the story is obvious.

That’s the thinking behind our free report, Seven AI Stocks for 2026, where we look beyond the usual headlines and focus on durability, valuation, and long-term relevance.

If you want to see how we approach these decisions in more depth, you can read the full report here.

Disclosure: this article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Views reflect the author’s opinion at the time of writing. Investors should consider their own circumstances before making decisions. David has a position in Nvidia stock as of this writing.

Which 3 US tech stocks would I start a 2026 ISA with?

Choosing what not to own matters just as much as choosing what to buy.

That feels especially true heading into 2026.

US technology shares have delivered huge gains over the last few years. But leadership is narrowing. Valuations are no longer cheap. And not every big name deserves a place in a long-term ISA.

If I were starting fresh today, I wouldn’t try to be clever.

I’d look for durability, pricing power, and businesses that can keep compounding even if markets get choppy.

Here are three US tech stocks I’d be comfortable building an ISA around for 2026 and beyond.

Before getting specific, it’s worth remembering this: an ISA rewards patience, not excitement. The goal is steady compounding, not bragging rights.

1. The core holding: Microsoft

If I had to pick just one US tech stock for an ISA, it would still be Microsoft.

Not because it’s exciting.

Because it’s reliable.

Microsoft sits at the centre of enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and now artificial intelligence. But what really matters is how those pieces fit together.

Azure keeps growing. Office keeps printing cash. And AI is being layered into existing products rather than bolted on as a gamble.

That makes Microsoft different from many AI names. It doesn’t need AI hype to justify its valuation. It already earns huge profits.

For an ISA, that matters. You want a company that can grow earnings steadily, absorb mistakes, and keep paying shareholders back through buybacks and dividends.

Microsoft does all three.

2. The platform bet: Alphabet

Alphabet feels less comfortable than Microsoft right now. And that’s exactly why it’s interesting.

Search is changing. AI is expensive. Margins are under pressure.

But strip away the noise and Alphabet still owns one of the most powerful advertising engines ever built. YouTube alone would be a massive business if it were listed separately.

The market’s concern is fair: AI search costs more than traditional search.

What I’m watching is whether Alphabet can monetise usage, not just grow it. If it can, today’s worries may look short-term in hindsight.

For an ISA, Alphabet is not a momentum play. It’s a platform bet on data, distribution, and scale.

At the right price, that’s a risk I’m comfortable taking.

3. The infrastructure play: Broadcom

This is the least talked about of the three. And arguably the most important.

Broadcom doesn’t sell stories. It sells components that the modern digital world quietly depends on.

Its chips sit inside data centres, networks, and enterprise systems. Its software business throws off recurring revenue. And demand is driven by infrastructure spending, not consumer fashion.

AI is a tailwind here, but not the whole thesis. Even if AI enthusiasm cools, data traffic, cloud usage, and network complexity continue to rise.

For an ISA, Broadcom offers something rare in US tech: a mix of growth and income, with a business model that benefits from scale rather than disruption.

What I’m deliberately avoiding

I’m cautious on highly speculative AI names.

I’m also wary of companies where valuation assumes perfect execution for the next decade. That’s a dangerous place to be when building an ISA.

This doesn’t mean those stocks won’t go up. It just means they don’t fit my risk tolerance for tax-sheltered, long-term capital.

How I’d think about 2026

For these three to work, a few things need to hold true.

Enterprise spending must stay resilient. AI investment needs to translate into revenue, not just cost. And regulation must nibble, not bite.

If those assumptions break, I’d reassess. That’s part of investing.

But if they hold, these businesses don’t need a roaring bull market to do well. They just need time.

Final thought

That’s exactly what an ISA gives you.

Big technology themes tend to dominate the headlines.

But the strongest returns often come from companies quietly building the infrastructure behind those themes, before the story becomes obvious.

We’ve outlined this thinking in a free research report that looks at seven technology stocks we believe are positioned to outperform as the AI and digital infrastructure cycle evolves toward 2026.

If you’d like to read it, you can access the report here.

Is Microsoft Stock a Good Investment for 2026? A Long-Term Outlook

Many investors want to know if Microsoft can keep winning over the next few years. It is already one of the most valuable companies in the world. So how much more room is there left to grow?

To answer that, we need to look at what Microsoft is doing today, and how its financial strength is setting up for the future.

Microsoft Remains a Leader in Tech

Microsoft builds technology that the world uses every day. Windows and Office help run workplaces. Azure powers cloud software. LinkedIn connects professionals. Xbox and gaming keep growing too.

This wide range of products helps Microsoft stay strong even when the economy gets tough. Businesses can delay other spending, but not their basic tech tools.

This gives Microsoft stability that many companies do not have.

Real Growth in Revenue and Earnings

Over the last five years, Microsoft has steadily increased how much money it makes.

Revenue has grown from $143 billion in 2020 to about $294 billion today. Analysts expect it could reach more than $325 billion by 2026 if current trends continue.

Profit is also increasing. Net income has gone from $44 billion in 2020 to around $105 billion today. Forecasts show it could reach about $122 billion in 2026.

That tells us people and businesses are spending more with Microsoft each year.

Strong Cash Flow Keeps Microsoft Moving Forward

Microsoft does not just grow sales. It also turns those sales into real cash.

Free cash flow per share, money that can be used to grow the company or pay investors, has risen from $5.89 in 2020 to $10.40 today. That’s a big jump in just a few years.

This matters because strong cash flow:

  • Protects the company in harder times
  • Helps fund AI and cloud investments
  • Supports a rising dividend

Microsoft’s dividend per share has also grown from $1.53 in 2020 to $3.40 today. Investors receive more income every year, with room for more growth ahead.

AI Makes Microsoft Even Stronger

Today, companies everywhere want AI tools. Microsoft sells those tools through products millions of people already use. Adding Copilot to Office and other services means customers pay more for technology they rely on.

That means AI can increase profits without needing new customers.

Azure also benefits because many AI programs need cloud power to run. More AI use → more cloud demand → more revenue for Microsoft.

Microsoft’s competitive position is getting stronger, not weaker.

What Risks Should You Watch?

There are always challenges to consider.

Microsoft is spending more money to build data centres for AI demand. That could temporarily reduce how much free cash is left after building costs. Regulators also watch large tech companies closely and could slow certain projects, issue large fines, or outright ban business practices in hostile jurisdictions.

And because so many investors love Microsoft, the stock price can swing quickly when the market’s mood changes. But that does not usually change the long-term story.

So, Is Microsoft a Good Investment for 2026?

Microsoft remains one of the strongest companies in global markets. Revenue is growing, profits are rising, cash flow is durable, and its leadership in AI continues to expand. Those are all qualities long-term investors should want exposure to.

But price still matters.

Microsoft’s current price-to-earnings ratio sits in the high-20s, which is expensive compared to its own history and to other mega-cap leaders with similar fundamentals. If we didn’t already hold Microsoft, purchased 18 months ago at a much more attractive valuation, it would be harder to justify initiating a new position today.

That isn’t a knock against Microsoft.

It’s simply how we invest.

We believe in buying great businesses at fair prices, not chasing growth when it becomes too expensive.

All in, Microsoft proves that earnings power matters more than hype. But discipline matters too, especially when making long-term investment decisions.